In this video, I break down yield curve inversions, one of the most closely watched recession indicators in financial markets. You’ll learn what the yield curve is, how to calculate the 10-year minus 3-month spread, and what it means when short-term rates exceed long-term rates. I cover the historical track record since 1970, why inversions happen (Fed rate hikes, investor flight-to-safety), and the key limitations you need to understand — including timing uncertainty and why no single indicator should be used in isolation. Whether you’re monitoring the macro environment or just want to decode yield curve headlines, this video has you covered.
Free Yield Curve Analyzer Tool: https://ryanoconnellfinance.com/yield-curve-analyzer/
Free Recession Indicators Article: https://ryanoconnellfinance.com/probability-of-recession/
Chapters
0:00 – The Most Watched Recession Indicator
0:17 – What is the Yield Curve?
1:05 – How to Measure the Spread
1:20 – Historical Track Record Since 1970
2:39 – Why Inversions Happen
3:31 – Key Limitations to Know
4:08 – How to Interpret Inversions
4:48 – Resources & Key Takeaways
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*Disclosure: This is not financial advice and should not be taken as such. The information contained in this video is an opinion. Some of the information could be wrong. This channel is owned and operated by Portfolio Constructs LLC. Some of the links above are affiliate links, meaning, at no additional cost to you, I will earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase.
